In 2022, container throughput through seaports will still grow positively. Profit growth is maintained well in both the port and logistics industries… Entering 2023, it is forecast that the port and logistics industry will face some difficulties and challenges as well as receive new prospects.

According to the port and logistics industry report of SSI Research (analytical division of SSI Securities), the port and logistics industry started 2022 with good performance when most stocks outperformed VN- index in Q1. However, the industry dropped sharply in the next 3 quarters…

SSI Research assesses that the container shipping market has ended its bullish cycle and entered a correction phase in 2022. The reason is partly due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which caused a supply shock, pushing up energy prices. and commodity prices go up. Consumer confidence was hit hard by high inflation in importing countries. In addition, consumer spending gradually shifted from goods to services in the post-Covid-19 period, weakening demand for goods transported by containers.

Container throughput through seaports still maintains a positive growth (up 5% in 2022). However, both domestic and international output have weakened since the second half of 2022…

Besides, profit growth is maintained well for the port and logistics industry.

Entering 2023, many enterprises operating in the seaport industry believe that this will be a year with many challenges.

At the 2023 mission deployment conference, a representative of Vietnam Maritime Corporation (VIMC) said that in 2023, the market for bulk carriers and container ships will decline sharply due to high and increasing inflation in many countries. The global recession affects the ability to purchase goods, the amount of inventory stored is high. VIMC’s seaport sector will continue to face many disadvantages due to the fact that the source of goods is at risk of decline due to the input factors of the market and the number of orders decreases, causing factories to operate in moderation and close; Vietnam’s import and export has shown signs of slowing down starting from the fourth quarter of 2022.

For the logistics industry, many experts also believe that 2023 will be a year of many difficulties and challenges. From the middle of 2022, the shipping industry “reversed” sharply, freight rates fell deeply back to the time before the pandemic, from lack of empty containers to carry goods, the world had a surplus of more than 6 million TEUs. That signals a very difficult year for the logistics service industry.

At the 2022 annual conference, the Vietnam Logistics Business Association (VLA) said that in November 2022, a report was sent to the Government, detailing the strength of export industries such as textiles and garments. garment, footwear, furniture… are in a relatively serious situation of a decrease in orders in 2023. The overall situation is quite gloomy and up to this point there has been no improvement…

According to SSI Research, in 2023, the demand for container transport will face many difficulties ahead. The unit sees consumer demand continue to be weak in 2023 amid high inflation (while personal income and savings decline due to slowing economic growth), and consumption structure continues to shift. switch from goods to services. In addition, clearing inventory requires at least 2 quarters.

SSI Research expects transportation demand to recover from the second half of 2023 to prepare for the peak shopping season at the end of the year. The reopening of China and the resumption of international flights is a significant positive factor for the industry… Container throughput is likely to be low in the first half of 2023, especially at deep-water ports with high volume. ships mainly come from America and Europe…

SSI Research believes that container shipping and logistics companies will be most affected due to weak demand and increased supply, however, output is expected to recover in the second half of 2023 when demand picks up again. Port companies can better sustain themselves thanks to stable service prices despite weak volume growth. Oil and gas carriers participating in the charter market can benefit from stable tanker demand in the short to medium term, while those operating in the spot market may experience volatility strong in price. The bulk shipping segment could benefit from the reopening of China.

Besides a number of challenges and difficulties mentioned above, the port and logistics industry also recorded new prospects and advantages.

By the beginning of 2023, Vietnam’s seaport infrastructure system has developed to a modern scale, contributing to improving service quality and competitiveness of Vietnam’s seaports and coasts. Many professional port operators and large shipping lines of many countries have participated in the construction and operation of seaports in Vietnam.

SSI Research said that in 2023, mergers and acquisitions may take place actively. Specifically, Vietnam Container Corporation is planning to buy 49% of the charter capital of Vinaship Shipping Joint Stock Company and announced the purchase of a port in Hai Phong port cluster. Gemadept Joint Stock Company plans to divest from Nam Hai Dinh Vu port, and sell 24% stake in Gemalink port to strategic investors…

SSI Research believes that market consolidation is a good strategy for companies to complete the logistics chain, increase negotiation capacity and reduce competition in the industry. Therefore, mergers and acquisitions may be a notable topic in 2023.

Source: Thanh tra